If the cost of intelligence falls 100x over the next decade, where does the economic value migrate?

As the marginal cost of intelligence trends toward zero, economic value is expected to shift away from cognitive labor and toward scarce physical and institutional assets.

Current analysis suggests value will migrate to:

• Physical Infrastructure: Scarcity will intensify in the underlying components of AI, specifically specialized chips (compute) and energy.
• Unique Data: As generic intelligence becomes a commodity, the value shifts to proprietary, high-quality, or private datasets that cannot be replicated.
• Trust and Verification: In an environment of AI abundance, the ability to guarantee authenticity, reputation, and human-verified output becomes a premium service.
• Regulation and Governance: As AI integration expands, influence over regulatory frameworks and technical standards will define market entry and competitive advantage.

While the cost of capability drops, total spending often increases as industries find new applications for intelligence that were previously prohibitively expensive, potentially shifting value into the sectors that orchestrate these new, automated workflows.